North Carolina gave away a decade of tax breaks without asking for a single number.
The state repealed its 2030 carbon target during the data center buildout, approved 3,620 megawatts of new gas partly on large-customer load growth, and is now litigating whether residential ratepayers subsidize a queue its own Commissioner calls 70% data centers.
14 min read · Status as of August 20, 2026 · Several items below are actively moving
The argument we’re not making.
The intuitive version of this page — that AI is harming North Carolina communities through water use and job losses — is the weakest argument available, and a county official could dismantle it using their own press releases. So here it is, conceded, with the evidence.
Water use at operating NC facilities is small.
Meta’s Forest City facility used about 4.2 million gallons across all of 2024 — roughly 11,500 gallons a day, below the state’s 100,000 gallon-per-day registration threshold. The town manager said they were shocked at how little water it used. Microsoft’s Catawba project is projected at about 1% of Hickory’s daily production capacity.
The alarming water numbers attach to projects that didn’t happen.
The Natelli project in Apex (up to 1 million gallons per day) was withdrawn in March 2026. The ESS project in Edgecombe County (around 500,000 gallons per day) is paused pending financing. Quoting a withdrawn project’s projected draw as a fact about the state is how a pipeline becomes a crisis on paper.
No NC data source can attribute a single layoff to AI.
The state has scheduled itself to close that measurement gap by March 2027. Until then, anyone claiming a North Carolina job-loss number caused by AI is working from data that does not exist.
And the revenue argument is serious, not spin.
Senate leader Phil Berger has argued that a $10 billion investment in a county with a $3.2 billion property tax base generates revenue “that doesn’t have a corresponding local expense” — no schools, no traffic, no solid waste. For a Tier 1 distressed county that is a real argument that deserves a real answer, and dismissing it as a talking point is how these conversations stop being useful.
Water use at North Carolina’s operating data centers is small. The state’s accountability gap is not.
Everything that follows is North Carolina’s own record — statute, Commission orders, a Commerce Department memo, and quotes from named participants in a live proceeding. None of it requires anyone to believe data centers are draining the Tar River.
What happened to the 2030 target.
North Carolina eliminated its interim decarbonization deadline three and a half years after enacting it, during the announced data center buildout.
Senate Bill 266, enacted as Session Law 2025-78 and titled “The Power Bill Reduction Act,” was vetoed by Governor Josh Stein on July 2, 2025. The veto was overridden on July 29, 2025 — Senate 30–18, House 74–46.
It removes from G.S. 62-110.9 the goal of reducing utility CO2 emissions 70% from 2005 levels by 2030. The baseline year is not optional detail — a percentage without a baseline is not a citable target. The 2050 carbon-neutrality requirement survives.
The same law broadens construction-work-in-progress recovery, letting Duke recover financing costs on baseload construction as incurred, outside a rate case. In plain terms: customers begin paying during construction, rather than once a plant is finished and serving them.
What’s being built.
From the Commission's own Carbon Plan order, Docket E-100 Sub 190, November 1, 2024.
8,000+ MW
of coal retired by 2036
3,620 MW
of new gas — 900 MW of combustion turbines by 2030 plus 2,720 MW of combined-cycle by 2031
3,460 MW
of new solar
1,100 MW
of storage, plus 600 MW of advanced nuclear in 2034–35
Secondhand, and flagged as such.Duke’s 2035 large-customer forecast of roughly 8 GW across 43 large-load projects, the claim that data centers represent more than 85% of expected new economic-development load growth, and a figure of 9.7 GW of new gas proposed over the decade all come to us through reporting rather than from filings we were able to open directly. They are load-bearing enough to state and unverified enough to label. Treat them as leads, not as citations.
Thirty-seven determinations.
Issued by NC Commerce between 2015 and 2025. None published. No company required to report a number.
written data center tax-exemption determinations issued 2015–2025. The list is not published, and companies are not required to report actual investment or exemption value
NC Commerce memo, April 2026
how far the 2015 legislative fiscal note underestimated the annual exemption value — $4M/yr estimated, against ~$20M electricity plus ~$31M equipment today
NC Commerce memo, April 2026
share of Duke's large-load queue that is data centers, per NCUC Commissioner Tommy Tucker, July 2026 — secondhand reporting
Reporting on E-100 Sub 208
of North Carolinians would support a data center in their own community. Poll not independently verified
Elon University Poll, spring 2026
The 2026 state budget (S257, signed around July 6, 2026) repealed the electricity exemption and kept the equipment one.
As of December 2025 the state had about 800 MW operational with roughly 6,300 MW in the pipeline. Megawatt figures are not public for Amazon, Microsoft at either site, Apple, or Google. For Google’s Lenoir facility, headcount, energy, water and sewer use are a contractual trade secret under a 2024 agreement with Caldwell County.
Worth noticing where the state’s own numbers come from: Commerce states openly that its megawatt figures are sourced from Baxtel, a commercial tracker. North Carolina is reading its own buildout off a private database, because it did not require anyone to tell it directly.
The rate case, in their own words.
Docket E-100 Sub 208 opened June 6, 2025. Duke's large-load tariff was filed June 2026 inside the DEC rate case, E-7 Sub 1329: 50 MW or more at 80%+ load factor, 10–15 year contracts, a minimum bill at 75% of contract demand, a 25% exit penalty — and no separate data center rate class.
“But then with my customer shoes on, we're in the middle of a rate case, so I don't see how you can say that we're benefiting customers.”
NCUC Commissioner Tommy Tucker, July 8 2026 hearing
Speaking to the finding that Duke's large-load queue is 70% data centers.
“If the [Large Load Customer's] plans change, the [Large Load Customer] cannot simply walk away from the system and leave the remaining customer base with the bill.”
Public Staff — North Carolina's statutory consumer advocate
The Public Staff asked that roughly $200M of Duke's $247M in requested grid upgrades be assigned directly to large-load customers. The brackets are in the original filing.
“It can take 10 or more years for other customers to start benefiting from large load additions.”
Expert witness for Attorney General Jeff Jackson
Jackson sought a separate data center rate class and a 7.4% return on equity against Duke's 10.95% ask — a difference of $1.37B over two years, about $435 per residential customer.
The July 17, 2026 settlement
Average increases of 3.7% a year over two years — down from an original residential ask of around 18% — at a 9.8% return on equity. Signed by the Public Staff, CIGFUR, CUCA, NCSEA, and Walmart. Attorney General Jackson declined to sign.
The docket numbers, opening date, and decision timeline above are confirmable from the Commission’s own record. The contentsof the filings — the tariff terms, the Public Staff’s allocation request, the Attorney General’s ROE position, the settlement figures, and Commissioner Tucker’s remark — reach us through journalism and advocacy releases, because the Commission’s filing PDFs returned empty during our research. They are cited to the secondary source and marked unverified in the sources block below.
The water story is smaller than you’d think.
Every large data center in North Carolina is served by a municipal water system. Its use therefore folds into city totals, and no facility-level figure exists at all — not because it is being concealed, but because nobody is required to produce one. The 4.2 million gallon figure for Forest City exists because a reporter asked a town manager.
This is the same measurement gap the water guide describes nationally, in its most concrete form. The state cannot evaluate what it does not measure, and it has not required the measurement as a condition of anything it has given away.
Dozens of moratoriums in six months.
North Carolina local governments have moved faster than the state has. State law bars moratoriums from applying to projects already in the pipeline, which is why the timing of each one matters as much as its existence.
Chatham County
12 months — the developer has sued
Surry County
Two years
Charlotte
150 days, June 2026
Durham City
60 days, May 2026
Orange County
Passed
Hillsborough
Passed
Apex
Passed
Wendell
Passed
An Elon University Poll in spring 2026 found that only 24% of North Carolinianswould support a data center in their own community. The poll was reported via WRAL and we have not independently verified its internals — no crosstabs, margin of error, or field dates confirmed against the pollster’s release.
“Data centers are hurting North Carolina communities.”
The version that goes too far
Leads with water and jobs — the two places where North Carolina's evidence is weakest — and gets dismantled by a facility's own environmental report. Meta's Forest City site used 4.2 million gallons in a year, and no NC data source can attribute a single layoff to AI.
The version that waves it away
Points to $10 billion of investment in a distressed county with no corresponding local expense and treats the matter as closed. That argument is serious. It is also an argument about benefits, and the question on the table is who bears the cost of the generation those benefits require.
What the evidence supports
The state repealed its interim carbon target mid-buildout, approved 3,620 MW of new gas partly on large-customer load growth, issued 37 tax determinations over a decade without ever requiring a company to report a number, and is now litigating cost allocation with its own Attorney General refusing to sign the settlement. That is a cost-shift and accountability problem, and it does not require anyone to believe data centers are draining the Tar River.
Sources for this split: sb266 · ncucCarbonPlan · ncCommerceMemo · largeLoadDocket · largeLoadFilings — full citations below.
Status as of August 20, 2026
What’s still moving
Four things on this page have decision dates or open questions attached. The pattern this guide teaches — cost-shift and accountability — survives any particular outcome, but the specifics below will date, and we would rather you knew which ones.
NCUC decision on the Duke Energy Carolinas rate case settlement
Due September 20, 2026. The July 17, 2026 settlement set average increases of 3.7% a year over two years and a 9.8% return on equity. Attorney General Jeff Jackson declined to sign it.
Expedited large-load tariff proceeding
Filing due end of September 2026. As of our last verification there was no NCUC-approved large-load tariff in North Carolina — meaning the rules for who pays for large new load are still being written.
Duke's federal data center pledge
Announced late July 2026. Governor Stein and Attorney General Jackson have been pressing to have it made binding at the Commission rather than left as a voluntary commitment. This developed after our research note was written and should be re-checked before being relied on.
NC Collaboratory / NC State (Rachunok, Kern)
Modeling data center water demand across North Carolina's five river basins and building a public repository of existing and planned NC data centers. No results yet. This is the thing to watch — it would close the measurement gap this guide describes.
Action for every level of influence.
For yourself
- Look up whether your county or municipality has passed a data center moratorium, and when it expires. State law bars moratoriums from applying to projects already in the pipeline, so the date matters.
- Find your NCUC docket. E-100 Sub 208 (large electric load additions) and E-7 Sub 1329 (the Duke rate case) are both public.
For a community
- Ask your county commission what was disclosed as a condition of any local incentive, and whether any of it is subject to a nondisclosure agreement. In Caldwell County the answer is already on the record: headcount, energy, water and sewer use are a contractual trade secret under a 2024 agreement.
- Ask what generation is being built to serve a proposed facility, and on what timeline. That is the question with the largest consequence and the one least often asked in a zoning hearing.
For an organization
- Large-load tariff terms affect every large electricity customer in the territory, not only data centers. If your organization buys a lot of power in North Carolina, you are an interested party in E-100 Sub 208.
For policy
- Publish the determinations. Thirty-seven exist; none are public.
- Require reporting as a condition of the exemption. A company that receives a tax benefit can be asked what it actually invested and what the benefit was worth.
- Require peak water reporting for large industrial users. Every large facility in the state is on a municipal system, so no facility-level figure currently exists — not because it is secret, but because nobody has to produce it.
Related
Who Pays
The health and cost burden of the AI buildout lands on specific counties and specific ratepayers — and the algorithms optimizing for aggregate efficiency make that worse, not better.
What Are We Arguing About?
The seven separate questions hiding inside “AI and the environment” — and the geographic scale at which each is true. Start here.
Electricity and Emissions
US data centers used 4.4% of national electricity in 2023, headed for 6.7–12% by 2028. What that does to emissions depends on something the number doesn’t contain.
Where this leads
CPAI teaches this in workshops and cohort programs.
We deliver this material to schools, libraries, employers, and community organizations — in person and online.
Research & further reading.
Note that the North Carolina Utilities Commission material is split into two entries. The proceedings — docket numbers, dates, and the Commission's own Carbon Plan page — are confirmed. The contents of the filings are secondhand, and are marked.
Bring this to your county or your classroom.
CPAI delivers this material as workshops and briefings for local government, community organizations, and schools across North Carolina — including a version built for people preparing to comment in a utility proceeding.